That was a significant drop from the nine-point margin Mitt Romney received when he carried the state in 2012. TRAFALGAR GROUP POLL WAS THE ONLY POLL THAT PREDICTED TRUMP WOULD WIN IN 2016. (Getty Images). When the final tally was counted Clinton defeated Trump by 2.1% in the popular vote, 65,844,954 (48.2%) to his 62,979,879 (46.1%). It first publicly released polls in 2016. education organization operating under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code, and contributions to the MRC are tax-deductible. In Wisconsin and Minnesota, however, the company sees Biden ahead of Trump, … The mission of the Media Research Center is to Trafalgar Group publishes polls conducted by phone concerning races for federal office. Three post-debate polls in swing states that will decide the 2020 election show President Donald Trump with a small lead. The poll also found that when asked who they believe most of their neighbors will vote for, 43% of respondents said Trump, while just 30% said Biden, with 27% saying they were not sure. Breitbart. CNSNews.com is a division of the Media Research Center. Trump is leading in Michigan 46.5% to 45.9%. Trump carried North Carolina by 3.66 points in 2016, 49.83 to 46.17%. Georgia Senate Runoff December 27 Poll TOTAL (with leans)Jon Ossoff 50.4%David Perdue 47.7%Undecided 1.9% TOTAL (with leans)Raphael Warnock 49.6%Kelly Loeffler 48.8%Undecided 1.6% See Report Here. Arizona October Presidential Poll. President Donald Trump now holds a narrow lead in two key battleground states he won four years ago. Trafalgar Group polls are notoriously accurate owing to the fact that they only ask people who are likely to vote in the election rather than just people who are registered to vote. In response, 47.8% said they would vote for Trump and 43.8% said they would vote for Biden. The Trafalgar Group. Since successfully predicting the result of the 2016 presidential election, its polling has been less accurate. The polls are all over the place in Arizona, although several recent surveys show the candidates within 1 or 2 points of each other. The poll, which surveyed 1,013 likely voters, projected the president receiving 46.2% of the vote to 44.8% for the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Arizona October U.S. Senate Poll. According to PoliZette, the firm is noteworthy for "using psychology combined with normal polling science" in its work. New Trafalgar Group Poll: Trump leads in Arizona Posted. The latest Trafalgar Group survey comes on the heels of Trump’s two stops in the state, holding rallies in Bullhead City and Goodyear on Wednesday. The most recent poll in the RealClearPolitics to turn the average into Trump's favor is the Rasmussen Reports poll Thursday that gives Trump a 4 percentage point edge over Democrat Joe Biden (49% to 45%). December 18, 2020. For Arizona, Trafalgar asked the same question of 1,087 likely voters. The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. The final poll of Arizona voters was released Saturday by the Trafalgar Group, an organization led by Robert Cahaly, one of the few pollsters who accurately predicted Trump's win … Copyright © 2021, Media Research Center. However, other Trafalgar Group swing state polls conducted in October suggested Trump victories, including in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and … Trump: 46.2%. A plurality of respondents in the North Carolina poll also said they believed Trump will win, with 47% saying the president will win the 2020 presidential election, compared to 41% who said Biden would prevail. Search for: Recent Posts. — Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) October 28, 2020. A recent CNN poll showed Biden leading by the same margin. Other recent polls showed Biden winning in Arizona, however. In the poll, Trafalgar asked 1,051 likely 2020 general election voters in Florida, "If the election for President were held today, how would you vote?". NC Oct 2020 Presidential Poll Donald Trump 48.8% Joe Biden 46.0% Jo Jorgensen 2.3% Howie Hawkins 0.4% Don Blankenship 0.2% Someone Else 0.6% Undecided 1.7% See Report Here The Trafalgar Group. A new poll released by the Trafalgar Group found the president has a 1.4-point lead over Joe Biden in Arizona. Findings from the Trafalgar Group, a political and corporate survey research firm, give President Donald Trump an edge to win out three fiercely contested swing states come November 3rd. The poll, which surveyed 1,013 likely … For Arizona, Trafalgar asked the same question of 1,087 likely voters. AZ Presidential Poll Donald Trump 46.2% Joe Biden 44.8% Jo Jorgensen 3.2% Another Party Candidate 1.4% Undecided 4.4% See Report Here In North Carolina, a new poll by Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion conducted for the Center for American Greatness found the president leading Biden by a single point, 48% to 47%. Jorgensen: 3.2%. LINK. A poll by Predictive Insights, which surveyed 603 likely voters, showed Biden ahead in Arizona by four points, 49% to 45%. Biden: 44.8%. That poll was conducted Oct. 11-13, 2020. The Trafalgar Group. Thank you to everyone helping keep ARIZONA red in 2020! Arizona Statewide Presidential Poll. A new poll released by the Trafalgar Group found the president has a 1.4-point lead over Joe Biden in Arizona. The question has been used in the past as an indicator of how some voters who refuse to openly state who they plan to vote for actually support. In response, 47.8% said they would vote for Trump and 43.8% said they would vote for Biden. Poll Date Sample MoE. However, in Pennsylvania, Biden is ahead with 47.4% and Trump at 45.1%. Florida probably is the most important … Robert Cahaly’s polls have Arizona, Michigan and Florida in the president’s column. In 2016, Trump won Arizona by 3.5 points, 48.08% to Clinton’s 44.58%. Polls: Trump narrowly leads Biden in Arizona, North Carolina. McSally (R) More recently, in 2018 polls were again accurate in the midterms, picking the Republicans to control … It’s hard to find another pollster who agrees with him. The survey, taken October 6-8, 2020, among 1,087 likely general election voters, showed the president holding a four-point advantage in the Grand Canyon State — 47.8 percent to 43.7 percent. So Trump’s lead shrank by a point, but he is at the magic 50 percent mark. IT IS THE ONLY MOST RELIABLE POLL PREDICTING 2020 ELECTION “Arizona and Minnesota are in the sights of both parties. Arizona October U.S. Senate Poll. Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Sinema. The MRC is a research and Again, this is the polling group that basically nailed the election results in 2016. Also, the Trafalgar Group poll gives Trump a 2.5 percentage point lead, 48.9%-46.5%. President Donald Trump, left, and former Vice President Joe Biden. In Arizona, Trump sits at 50 percent, compared to just 47 percent for Biden. The company has tended to produce polls that show more support for Trump than other pollsters do. That poll was conducted Oct. 11-13, 2020. create a media culture in America where truth and liberty flourish. In Wisconsin and Minnesota, however, the company sees Biden ahead of Trump, for the 10 electoral votes in each of these states. Search for: Recent Posts. A poll by Susquehanna shows that both candidates are tied. Georgia Senate Runoff December 18 Poll. 42 4. A poll by the Trafalgar Group in Arizona show Trump leading Biden by 2.5 points In the last one month, two polls, one by ABC News Washington post and the other by data for progress show President Trump ahead. Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen received 3.2% in the poll. This shows poll numbers were extremely accurate in 2016, the inaccuracies were in key electoral college swing states which President Trump dominated Clinton. Robert Cahaly, the chief Trafalgar Group pollster, has cautioned that most polls are not accounting for the “hidden” Trump support in key battleground states. But they didn’t believe him in 2016 either. North Carolina has long been headed for a photo finish. (CNS News) -- The Trafalgar Group polling firm, which was the only group to accurately predict a Donald Trump win in Michigan in 2016, and one of only a few firms that predicted a Trump 2016 win in Pennsylvania, gives Trump a slight lead today -- Election Day -- over Democrat Joe Biden in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Trafalgar Group's poll in Arizona also favors Trump by 2.5 points against the New York Times' 6-point lead by Biden for 11 electoral votes in the Grand Canyon State. The company says it utilizes methods to … All Rights Reserved. The polling organization also tends not to oversample Democrats as some others do. Arizona October Presidential Poll. In response, 48.4% said they would vote for Donald Trump; 46.1% said they would vote for Biden. President Donald Trump has overtaken his Democrat challenger Joe Biden (D) in battleground Arizona, a Trafalgar Group survey released Friday found. by Eat Your Crow. Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a "hidden vote" Cahaly says is … Arizona October 30 Presidential Poll. (CNS News) -- The Trafalagar Group polling firm, the only pollster to accurately foresee a Donald Trump win in Michigan in 2016, and one of the few groups to forecast a Trump win in Pennsylvania in 2016, currently places Trump ahead of Joe Biden in Arizona and in Florida. (Trafalgar Group, Arizona poll) That poll was conducted Oct. 6-8, 2020. In 2016, they were just 3 polls during this period. “People are going to be shocked. Trafalgar Group’s poll in Arizona also favors Trump by 2.5 points against the New York Times’ 6-point lead by Biden for 11 electoral votes in the Grand Canyon State. In Michigan, the Trafalgar Group, one of the most accurate swing state pollsters in 2016 and 2018, shows Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden by two points, 49 to 47 percent, with third party libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen at two percent. According to a poll released on Saturday, Trump leads in Michigan by two points, Florida by two points, and Arizona by three. An earlier Trafalgar poll had Trump up by four, 48 to 44 percent. on 8/10/20 at 9:26 pm. Jorgensen is again at two percent. Trump is leading in Michigan 46.5% to 45.9%. Arizona October 30 Presidential Poll. America where truth and liberty flourish lead in two key battleground states he won four years ago mission of 2016! Were extremely accurate in 2016, the Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company by! Electoral college swing states that will decide the 2020 election show president Donald Trump, left, and Vice! By 3.5 points, 48.08 % to 45.9 % poll gives Trump a 2.5 percentage point lead 48.9. 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